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February, 2012
(Updated February 7, 2012)
Crude Oil Prices
According to the Energy Information Administration on February 7, 2012, the U.S. average refiner acquisition cost of crude oil will average about $100 per barrel in 2012, almost $6 per barrel higher than the average price last year. For 2013 the Energy Information Administration expects West Texas Intermediate price to continue to rise, reaching $106 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year.
Winter Outlook
Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain. West Texas Intermediate futures for April 2012 delivery during the 5-day period ending February 2, 2012 averaged $98.52 per barrel. Implied volatility averaged 30 percent, establishing the lower and upper limits of the 95-percent confidence interval for the market's expectations of monthly average WTI prices in April 2012 at $81 per barrel and $120 per barrel, respectively.
Gas and Diesel Prices
The annual average regular-grade gasoline retail price was $3.53 per gallon in 2011, and was $0.74 per gallon (27 percent) higher than the 2010 average . The Energy Information Administration expects the regular-grade gasoline retail price to average $3.55 per gallon in 2012. The Administration expects on-highway diesel fuel retail prices, which averaged $3.84 per gallon in 2011, will average $3.91 per gallon in 2012 and $3.99 per gallon in 2013.
The peak price of $4.10/gallon for gasoline in Nebraska was reached on July 15, 2008.
Because taxes and retail distribution costs are generally stable, movements in gasoline and diesel prices are driven primarily by changes in crude oil prices and wholesale margins. Crude oil prices that differ from our forecast would be reflected in the price of motor fuels. Each dollar per barrel of sustained change in crude oil prices relative to the forecast translates into approximately a 2.4 cent-per-gallon change in product prices, absent the consideration of factors specific to the gasoline and diesel fuel markets.
The projected increase in gasoline prices suggests that vehicle fueling costs for the average U.S. household will be about $825 higher in 2011 than they were in 2010.
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Ways to Save Gas and Fuel
Purchase Fuel Wisely and Save Up to 20%
- Use the Right Grade of Gasoline / Don't Top Off the Tank: Most cars run fine on regular gas. Check your vehicle owner's manual to find out what fuel is right for your car. Don't "top off" at the pump and make sure your fuel fill cap is on tight and working right. Regular grade fuel usually costs 10 percent less than premium gasoline.
- Look for the Best Price / Limit Purchases When Prices Are High: Today's gasolines are all very similar, so choose stations in your area with the lowest prices. Avoid filling the tank when prices are high. Fuel prices can sometimes vary 10 percent in an area.
Alter Travel Practices and Save Up to 30%
- Use Carpooling, Public Transit and Non-Motorized Options: Ride the bus, carpool, bicycle or walk instead of driving alone. Sharing a ride to work with a friend or two effectively doubles your fuel economy for the trip.
- Take Advantage of Telecommuting and Telecommunications Technology: Some employers offer telecommuting as an option. Use the computer and telephone to replace vehicle trips for business, shopping and services when possible.
Drive More Efficiently and Save Up to 20%
- Don't Drive Aggressively / Drive at the Speed Limit: Avoid aggressive driving and jack-rabbit-like starts. All vehicles lose fuel economy at speeds above 65 miles per hour. Driving 65, instead of 75 mph, reduces fuel cost about 13 percent.
- Reduce Air Conditioner Use / Close Windows: Using the air conditioner increases fuel cost by about 13 percent. If it's cool enough, use flow-through ventilation instead of rolling down the windows.
- Eliminate Extra Wind Resistance and Weight: Using a loaded roof rack increases fuel consumption. Carry the load inside your vehicle if you can. Removing any unnecessary weight is even better.
- Minimize Vehicle Idling: Today's vehicles are designed to warm up fast. Avoid idling when you can. An idling vehicle gets 0 miles a gallon.
Improve the Efficiency of the Vehicle You Drive — save up to 50%
- Maintain Vehicle Efficiency: Regular maintenance as prescribed by the vehicle owner's manual will help your vehicle achieve its best fuel economy. Some overlooked maintenance items, such as a dirty air filter and under inflated tires, can increase your fuel cost up to 13 percent. When purchasing new tires, replace them with the same make and model as the tires that were on your vehicle when it was new.
- Drive or Purchase a Fuel Efficient Vehicle: Drive your most fuel-efficient vehicle whenever possible. When purchasing, consider the most fuel efficient vehicle and save up to 50 percent. Consider a hybrid-electric, a diesel vehicle or even a motorcycle. The next best option is to purchase the most fuel efficient vehicle within the class of vehicles you are considering. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Energy’s Fuel Economy web site provides information on the most fuel efficient vehicles.
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