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May, 2013
(Updated May 20, 2013)
Crude Oil Prices
According to the Energy Information Administration on May 7, 2013, the U.S. average refiner acquisition cost of crude oil will fall from an average of $112 per barrel in 2012 to annual averages of $108 per barrel and $101 per barrel in 2013 and 2014, respectively.
Near-Term Outlook
Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain. West Texas Intermediate futures for August 2013 delivery during the five-day period ending May 2, 2013, averaged $93.41 per barrel. Implied volatility averaged 22 percent, establishing the lower and upper limits of the 95-percent confidence interval for the market's expectations of monthly average WTI prices in August 2013 at $77 per barrel and $113 per barrel, respectively.
Gas and Diesel Prices
The annual average regular-grade gasoline retail price was $3.69 last summer. The Energy Information Administration expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.53 per gallon during the current summer driving season.
The Energy Information Administration expects that on-highway diesel fuel retail prices will average $3.88 per gallon this summer.
The peak price of $4.10/gallon for gasoline in Nebraska was reached on July 15, 2008.
The peak price of $4.77/gallon for diesel in Nebraska was reached on July 17, 2008.
Because taxes and retail distribution costs are generally stable, movements in gasoline and diesel prices are driven primarily by changes in crude oil prices and wholesale margins. Crude oil prices that differ from the forecast would be reflected in the price of motor fuels. Each dollar per barrel of sustained change in crude oil prices relative to the forecast translates into approximately a 2.4 cent-per-gallon change in product prices.
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